In full knowledge of the iffiness of any team getting to a Super Bowl, and duly noting that the Miami Dolphins haven’t won one in 33 years and haven’t been to one in 22 years, I’m taking the Dolphins to take it all. Some of Nick Saban must have rubbed off on me. He is positivism personified, and no less about this team. Don Shula, who did the only great coaching deeds that have been done for the Dolphins, is impressed, too: “I think Nick has got it all on track.’’
1. MIAMI DOLPHINS
Even with the NFL chockablock with fine coaches, there aren’t many detailists as fine as Nick Saban. If he talks in circles, it’s only because he considers what’s happening around him his own business, not the world’s. Not necessarily a great public relations move, but why would Saban care? He gets paid to win, not to make friends. Granted, QB with Daunte Culpepper could be problematic – ligament often equals predicament. You hardly ever make a Super Bowl without a top quarterback, and even though Culpepper is fine when he’s ready, we won’t know till September, and then maybe only week to week. But then we’re all week to week, sort of. Otherwise, Saban’s building process has been sound, and the “secret’’ weapon Saban brought was Hudson Houck, one of the best offensive line coaches anywhere . . . ever.
2. NEW YORK GIANTS
Sure, the old boy could stand some charm-schooling, but he can give lessons in waking up new or dormant franchises. At Jacksonville, Tom Coughlin set winning records for new teams. Old timers will recall Coughlin was an assistant coach on the Giants’ Super Bowl champions of 16 years ago. And last year, he prodded the Giants to the postseason in just his second season. Jeff Hostetler quarterbacked those ‘90 Giants. Not to oversell Eli Manning on his family’s achievements, but he should be around a long time. One way he could improve is for his run-blockers to become pass-blockers as well. That doesn’t absolve Manning – he lapsed into some bad habits and threw some bad passes. Says here he’s coming back strong.
3. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
At first it looked like Peyton Manning just picked up the pedigree from Archie, and was passing it along to Eli. Now it’s more like Peyton started the whole bloodline. This guy is all thoroughbred, still only 30 and maybe another 10 years in front of him if he can keep that terrific motivation, and the loss of Edgerrin James doesn’t tear a gigantic hole in the offense. Of course, it gets tougher every year, but a team that went 14-3 shouldn’t lack motivation. Again, they need a better defense; the Colts were tattooed for 26 and 28 points in two late-season games.
4. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Surprise pick this high with Chris Simms stepping up as QB? He can chuck it. Now, if Jon Gruden can straighten out whatever problems there have been with Michael Clayton’s potential on the other end. But far bigger than Clayton is the picture in the offensive line. At top speed, it’s one of the best blocking units around and the biggest reason the Bucs will be right in the middle of an often-underrated NFC South.
5. CAROLINA PANTHERS
Keyshawn Johnson should be winding down a little at age 34, so the same old big-money guy is Steve Smith. I cringe every time someone mentions an “automatic’’ Pro Football Hall of Famer, but if Smith, even at 5-9, isn’t a Canton candidate somewhere around 2015, there isn’t a mountain in North Carolina. By the way, the Panthers made sure underrated boss John Fox will stick. He’s a $5 Million Man through at least ‘10.
6. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
This is a gamble on the Steelers’ superior organization, because Super Bowl kings just don’t keep repeating. This also is a bet on Ben Roethlisberger, who is 27-4 and an awesome team guy. If the Steelers lead by 10 any time, they are a lock to win. That has happened 102 times since Bill Cowher took over in ‘92; the Steelers have won 100 of those times.
7. DENVER BRONCOS
You’re about as safe picking up a Rocky Mountain rattlesnake as messing with Snaky Jake Plummer, who took them to the brink of the AFC championship. Plummer has the offensive line to go the distance. But does he have the receivers? And can Denver’s defense shut people down? Anyway, as long as the Broncos play half the schedule at home, they will be a factor.
8. WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Joe Gibbs only has to continue his upward track since rejoining the Skins in ‘04. He certainly seems to have invested wisely (well, management invested, since there’s no salary cap for coaches) in offensive coordinator Al Saunders and defensive chief Gregg Williams, both enrolled at more than $2 million per year. This is a club to take seriously, especially if runner Clinton Portis and catcher Santana Moss can stay upright.
9. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
“Experts’’ mention the Patriots’ so-called easy schedule – laughable. No NFL team has a schedule that is certifiably easy going in. The Patriots’ talent is being chipped away, but they will be dangerous as long as they have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Hard to figure out exactly what to say about Corey Dillon, who once could be called unstoppable. Running backs do pay dear prices in bodily wear.
10. OAKLAND RAIDERS
Al Davis was smart to recycle coach Art Shell. The Raiders also are recycling sometimes shaky QB Aaron Brooks, about whom I’m not so sure. Then there’s Randy Moss, a coast away from old teammate Daunte Culpepper – a coast too far, Moss probably is saying under his breath.
11. DALLAS COWBOYS
Cowboys fans can hope all they like with Drew Bledsoe and Terrell Owens, but Dallas today is nothing like it was in the days of Troy Aikman, Michael Irvin and Emmitt Smith. Yes, yes, I hear it too, T.O. will be good, T.O. has learned his lessons. But T.O. is still T.O., and I simply can’t imagine he and Bill Parcells successfully coexisting for very long.
12. CINCINNATI BENGALS
Here’s a documentary-in-the-works about the value of putting so much on a QB. Wonder-kid Carlson Palmer comes into his third season off a second in which he flung 20 more touchdown passes than interceptions. Remember, the Bengals, not the Steelers, are defending the AFC North title.
13. CHICAGO BEARS
They do say the city is outraged over a ban on foie gras, the delicacy compounded of duck and goose liver; “they’’ presumably refers to the millions of gourmet diners in this delicate area. I suspect Chicagoans are much more interested in the Bears, who get Rex Grossman back. And how handy is it to play in the division where you get two games apiece against Green Bay, Minnesota and Detroit.
14. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
How did the Seahawks get so far down so fast after playing that close Super Bowl? It’s simply history. The past five years, no Super Bowl loser has made even .500 the next year. There hasn’t been a Super Bowl loser to even win the Super Bowl the next season since, hoo boy, the ‘72 Dolphins who just mowed down everybody. If you think it should be Matt Hasselbeck’s time, join the cheering.
15. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Old Jethead Herman Edwards has defensive problems. His offense is OK, if not spectacular with 36-year-old Trent Green not missing a start since ‘01. It looks as though CB Patrick Surtain will have to carry a lot more of the defense than he ever thought he would when he shipped out of Miami.
16. BALTIMORE RAVENS
Oh, the glories this old burg has known! Now, though, anxiety is the headline, with coach Brian Billick on the griddle partly because of uncertain quarterbacking. Management gave him a scary “vote of confidence’’ amid assumptions that either the Ravens will go to the Super Bowl or Billick will go, period.
17. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Young Jack Del Rio’s Jaguars came to bloom a bit offensively in scoring 30-plus points in half their past eight games. Byron Leftwich has to go injury-free and hit consistently. He doesn’t move around all that niftily even in the best of health.
18. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
So which guy do we believe? Terrell Owens, who kept talking about how tired Donovan McNabb got out there? Or McNabb, as usual the picture of confidence? The home of the cheesesteak sandwich has been toast lately, and things will get hotter unless the search for a true No. 1 RB turns up results. Another recent Super Bowl loser going sour.
19. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
This is something I’ve been waiting for – Philip Rivers’ chance to start. Rivers has a splendid touch, not to mention a fine fella to keep things going in LaDainian Tomlinson. And check out what most of the world is missing: One of these days Marty Schottenheimer is going to bring it all home.
20. ST. LOUIS RAMS
The Rams are putting a lot of weight on Torry Holt, Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson to carry the offense for new coach Scott Linehan. One thing to remember about the Rams – teams don’t change coaches (as they did going from Mike Martz to Linehan) unless there’s a problem.
21. GREEN BAY PACKERS
Brett Favre will be the story as long as he’s there. He’s closing in on 38, only about four years younger than new coach Mike McCarthy. But when you look over at the Bears as favorites to win the AFC North, well, Favre is 11-1 at Soldier Field.
22. NEW YORK JETS
Issue here is QB, QB, QB. Chad Pennington has started only 25 of 48 games since he actually led NFL passers four seasons ago. Hard to believe they just missed making a run at the AFC championship as recently as ‘04.
23. BUFFALO BILLS
Dick Jauron is an appealing coach who hasn’t gotten it done yet. Willis McGahee is pretty much the running package if he can last. And the Bills don’t have a trustworthy QB.
24. ATLANTA FALCONS
Michael Vick? Great eye appeal, but an overall plus? Falcons bank on John Abraham to bring punch to a soggy defense. This division used to be easy. No more.
25. CLEVELAND BROWNS
After a bunch of front-office jockeying and a blow-up between Trent Dilfer and offensive coordinator Maurice Carthon, Dilfer is outta there and Charlie Frye starts at QB. Sad case: The Browns are 15-33 since reaching the ‘02 postseason.
26. ARIZONA CARDINALS
Not one of nine coaches since Don Coryell in ‘77 has left with a winning record, and Dennis Green is 11-21 and up against it.
27. DETROIT LIONS
Doesn’t seem fair that so many awful things happen in Detroit. How could you do that to a team like this, anyway, Barry? Or did you do it just because this is a team like this?
28. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Brad Johnson, soon-to-be 38 and once of FSU, can throw if they give him enough receivers to make up for the hole Randy Moss and Nate Burleson left following their departures the past two years.
29. HOUSTON TEXANS
Maybe they played it smart in drafting Mario Williams over Reggie Bush, but I thought the Texans needed more help on the other side of the ball.
30. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Were we ever so eager to say something nice about a team? Maybe different circumstances will mean different results.
31. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Mike Nolan is cleaning house, and hard-luck Frank Gore is a buster, faster than anybody ever seems to think.
32. TENNESSEE TITANS
Titans play four times on the road in their first six games, and some of those opposing defenses – San Diego’s, Miami’s and Washington’s – look extremely punishing.
Good Luck!
